Labour weighs watering down five-to-ten-year ILR plan after 200,000 granted status

New analysis has found that 200,000 migrants have been granted indefinite leave to remain since the Home Secretary promised to extend the qualifying period from five years to 10. Shabana Mahmood made that commitment more than a year ago. The change has not been implemented, in part because of a rebellion by Labour MPs. The new figures cover people who reached the current five-year threshold and were granted settlement, which gives them access to benefits, pensions and public services.

Mahmood has described the current system as very expensive. She estimated, based on Migration Advisory Committee findings, that failing to make the change would cost taxpayers £10 billion over the lifetime of the affected group. The government says no final decision has been made and that it is waiting for the consultation to end. But the row has become a test of whether Labour will weaken its plan.

Senior Labour frontbencher Miatta Fahnbulleh criticised the proposed move in a letter to constituents. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said it looked as though Mahmood was about to capitulate to the Labour left and to Angela Rayner. He argued that people who come on temporary work visas and do not make a significant financial contribution should leave when their visas expire. He rejected the claim that the change would be retrospective because those affected do not yet have indefinite leave to remain.

The rebellion has centred on whether the longer qualifying period should apply to people already in the UK. Critics say it is unfair to change the terms for people who are already here. Supporters say the rules for earning settlement can be altered and that no one has a right to stay permanently. Social care has become a focus because one in four care workers is a migrant and the sector has about 96,000 vacancies. Some MPs want care workers exempt from having to reapply every five years, arguing that tied visas leave them vulnerable to abusive employers. Others say the answer is to pay care workers better and train people already in the country.

Newspaper coverage said Mahmood was fighting to save her migrant crackdown as Labour MPs pressed to water down the plans. The argument now covers both the 200,000 people already granted settlement and the future rules for hundreds of thousands more. No final outcome has been announced.