Burnham bounce lifts Labour as rival leaders face conference pressure

Polling gives Labour its highest voting intention rating since January last year after Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer in Number 10. For the first time since April last year, Labour is not being beaten by Reform. The result has been called the Burnham bounce and has set the tone for the party conference season.

At Reform UK's conference, Nigel Farage sought to frame Burnham as a Prime Minister without a mandate. He called him 'the Messiah without a mandate', said politics was broken after seven Prime Ministers in 10 years, and demanded a general election. Farage used the conference to set out policies Reform would implement in its first 100 days. Reform had spent two years demanding Keir Starmer's removal, but Starmer is now out and Burnham is a more popular Prime Minister. Donation scandals have hurt Farage, and he spent the summer campaigning against a bin. Reform's own conference was overshadowed by a funding scandal, with a flat mood and a leader under pressure. Days after the conference, Reform received £72 million from two cryptocurrency billionaires, giving it a large war chest.

At the Conservative conference, Kemi Badenoch argued Burnham was beatable. Burnham is out polling Badenoch, but Tory activists argued he was beatable. Some said he had a thin skin and lacked a sense of humour, while others said he would be harder to beat because he is a more polished media performer who could win back voters lost to the Greens. Badenoch said Burnham became leader without a contest and joked that he was Labour's first female prime minister. She said her job was to hold him to account and called for more detail on the economy and defence. The Conservatives used their conference to promise to legislate so nobody pays inheritance tax on their family home, aiming at affluent middle England.

The Liberal Democrats are also feeling the pressure. Ed Davey faces public questions about his future, and some Lib Dem MPs worry he is not cutting through as Burnham makes inroads on social care and Brexit. Members at conference were less rattled. One said Burnham was not unduly threatening and could be easier to work with than Starmer, while another gave credit but said he was not going far enough. The party's response is to get on with what it does well.

On the left, the Greens are losing support as Burnham adopts a more progressive approach. Zack Polanski is struggling to claim the politics of change. There are also wider problems for the Greens, including questions about Polanski himself and disputes over Zionism and racism.

Alongside the conference battles, the durability of the bounce is the central question. Ministers are pushing small retail policies, such as a £100 penalty for playing loud music on a bus, to show momentum. Supporters say such measures acknowledge that small things have big effects, pointing to the political damage done by the winter fuel allowance change. Burnham is seen as part of a Blairite push to connect with voters. Critics say the fundamentals have not changed. A budget next week is expected to be painful for many people, and cost of living and public services are likely to decide the next election. Burnham is seen as a lucky general because Reform is imploding and the Greens are going backwards, but the political landscape remains fractured and Labour's lead is not large.