Asbestos Death Toll Estimate and Removal Deadline Push

Campaigners and scientists are demanding a government-imposed deadline for the removal of asbestos from buildings, warning that the true death toll could be far higher than official figures suggest. A new analysis presented to 5 News claims that asbestos-related deaths in the UK may reach up to 20,000 per year, a significant increase on the currently accepted estimate of around 5,000.

The warning comes from Professor Daniel Murphy, whose research challenges the official numbers. He argues that while the official count includes about 2,500 mesothelioma deaths and 2,500 lung cancer deaths linked to asbestos each year, the lung cancer figure is likely to be massively underestimated. Based on the type of asbestos involved, he suggests the true number could be between 7,500 and 20,000 deaths annually. "Mesothelioma is very much the visible part of an iceberg," he said. "Most of the fatalities are actually under the water. We're not even looking, we're not even thinking about it."

The campaign has been backed by personal stories, including that of Jim, a former worker who developed mesothelioma after decades of exposure, and Rose, who was exposed as a child during school repairs. Both are now living with the incurable cancer. Rose said she asks herself every day whether it will be her last birthday or Christmas.

Lawyer Nicola, who helped Rose investigate her case, said the issue is no longer confined to older men who worked in heavy industry. "More needs to be done," she said. "It's affecting women and younger people as well."

In response, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) acknowledged uncertainty in the research into asbestos-related lung cancer deaths, noting that estimates vary between studies. It said that where asbestos cannot be managed safely, it will always be removed. The government also defended the current approach, saying that building owners are already required to declare and safely manage asbestos. It argued that a fixed removal deadline could be counterproductive, leading to rushed and unsafe work.

Campaigners have written to the new prime minister, comparing the issue to other national scandals such as Hillsborough, contaminated blood, and the Post Office Horizon case. They are calling for a clear deadline to remove all asbestos from buildings across the UK.

Asbestos was widely used in construction until it was banned in 1999. It remains present in many older buildings, and current policy is to leave it in place if it is intact and well managed. But campaigners say this approach is not enough, and that the legacy of asbestos continues to claim lives decades after exposure.