Lula returns in Brazil as Serbia's Vučić loses and Israel prepares to vote

Brazil

Lula has returned to power in Brazil after winning a fourth term as president. The result marks a big comeback. Brazil's constitution allows only two consecutive terms, but Lula's four terms have been separated by other presidents, including Dilma Rousseff and Jair Bolsonaro.

The result surprised many observers. After the first round, some in Lula's party and other Latin American progressives thought his path back was closed. The final result reversed that expectation.

Lula will not have an easy domestic agenda. The Brazilian legislature is controlled by the right, and Bolsonaro-aligned candidates made gains in Senate and House elections held before the presidential vote. Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party now has more seats than before. This points to cohabitation, with Lula's promises on public spending and support for young entrepreneurs likely to run into a right-controlled parliament.

The president's formal powers are limited in Brazil, but foreign policy gives more room for manoeuvre. Lula has not massively distanced himself from Vladimir Putin, and he is unlikely to be a friend to Donald Trump. Amazon preservation and the legal position of Jair Bolsonaro, who is described as having an extremely long prison sentence for an attempt to overturn the last election, are likely to be areas of sharp difference.

Serbia

In Serbia, snap elections produced a serious defeat for Aleksandar Vučić. Vučić, who had been president, wanted to return as prime minister, a move compared to Vladimir Putin's earlier switches between president and prime minister. He had been in charge in one role or another for 12 years. His SNS party did badly and was defeated by a student-led list.

The student list grew out of protests after a public transit station collapsed in Novi Sad, killing several people. Waves of student protests followed and fed into the election campaign. The list won a majority in parliament. It is not a traditional party with a single leader, which makes the future shape of Serbian politics uncertain.

The result was compared to Viktor Orban's defeat in Hungary earlier in the year. Both leaders had leaned towards Moscow and had spent years tilting democratic systems towards their own parties. Peter Magyar, the new Hungarian prime minister, pointed to the similarities. One difference is that Magyar has his own party, Tisza, with a strong identity and a group of leaders around him. Serbia's student list does not have that structure.

Israel and beyond

In Israel, parties are preparing for elections on Tuesday. The French presidential election has also started to heat up, although it is not due until next spring. Across the weekend, the results in Brazil and Serbia gave the wider debate about democracy fresh material: a left-wing comeback in Brazil, a populist defeat in Serbia, and an Israeli vote still to come.