Brazil election goes to runoff as Flavio Bolsonaro beats Lula in first round

Brazil's presidential election is going to a runoff on 25 October after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round but fell short of an outright majority.

First round result

The first round took place after a closely fought campaign. Polls had suggested Lula was slightly ahead, but Flavio Bolsonaro finished about two percentage points ahead of the 80-year-old incumbent. Neither candidate won more than 50% of valid votes, so the top two will meet again on 25 October. Other right-wing candidates have dropped out, making Flavio the strong favourite.

Lula said the result was not what he had expected. "The result is often unexpected. We never get everything we wanted. I confess to you that I was convinced I was going to win the election in the first round. We had 28 million people who did not show up to vote. We're going to make an appeal so that people know that at this historic moment in Brazil, it will define the future of this country." Flavio said: "I am very happy about the real possibility that three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer that it wants a modern government, a government with few ministries, a government that will restore democracy."

The vote also elected most of Congress. Early reports differed on the number of presidential candidates, with some coverage saying 13 were on the ballot and others saying 11 challengers or 12 candidates in total. The main race was between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the two biggest names in Brazilian politics. Nearly 159 million Brazilians were eligible to vote, including in remote Amazon areas, Sao Paulo and Lisbon, Portugal. Polls closed in the late afternoon and results came quickly because of electronic voting.

The candidates

Lula is a veteran left-wing politician who first served as president in 2003. He is 80 and seeking a historic fourth term, not consecutive. He returned to power after narrowly beating Jair Bolsonaro in the previous election, following a brief prison term on a corruption charge that was later overturned. His governments launched social welfare programmes credited with lifting millions out of poverty and building universities. Deforestation in the Amazon fell under his watch, although environmentalists criticised his support for offshore oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon river. In this campaign he focused on economic well-being for low-income families, including a rise in income, and promised to tackle betting companies. Slow growth, high personal debt and voter concern about crime were headwinds.

Flavio Bolsonaro is a senator from Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He is nearly half Lula's age. Jair endorsed him to carry on his political projects. Flavio has promised tough action on crime and insecurity, including mega prisons and treating Brazilian gangs as terrorist organisations. He has also promised to cut taxes and debt. He said he would introduce an amnesty for his father and others convicted after the 8 January riots, when Jair supporters stormed government buildings after his election loss. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the last election, and is under house arrest because of health problems. Flavio's challenge has been winning over more moderate right-wing voters, especially after scandals including a public fight with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and a recording of him requesting money from a banker at the centre of a corruption scandal. He denies wrongdoing. Michelle Bolsonaro was elected to the Senate, another son was elected to the Senate, and a third son was elected to Congress.

US role and regional stakes

The election has become a test of Brazil's sovereignty and its relationship with the United States. Donald Trump formally endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro. His father Jair was a close Trump ally. The US imposed tariffs on Brazil partly in response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial. A 50% tariff last year on some Brazilian exports was negotiated down, but 25% tariffs were reimposed this year on other exports. Lula accused the US of trying to interfere in Brazilian politics and its judicial system. He blocked visas for US officials, who Brazil said were coming to sow doubt about the electoral system. The US called that baseless. Lula framed his campaign as a defence of Brazilian sovereignty, called the tariffs and the designation of Brazilian gangs as foreign terrorist organisations blackmail, and loosely referred to Trump as an emperor. He also pushed for closer ties with China, Brazil's largest trading partner, and the wider world.

Flavio Bolsonaro lobbied Washington to designate Brazilian gangs as foreign terrorist organisations. He argued he was the only one who could sit down with the US as an equal. Lula said that risked more US interference, possibly even US military intervention on Brazilian soil. A Brazilian intelligence dossier alleged US intervention, and it was reported that US funding under a Ukraine package was shifted to support right-wing messaging, including Facebook ads favouring Flavio Bolsonaro. The US denies interference. Brazil is the largest economy and democracy in South America, and many countries in the region have swung to the right and elected leaders aligned with Trump. Analysts said the vote was about how close or distant Brazilians want to be from the US.

A separate corruption scandal involving Supreme Court judges and a banker has also divided voters. It has raised questions about trust in the court, including its decisions on Jair Bolsonaro. With two such different front runners, the runoff is likely to leave Brazil divided again.