Badenoch solid at Tory conference but polls stay poor

Kemi Badenoch is leading a more united Conservative Party at its conference in Birmingham, but the party still faces poor opinion poll ratings and a difficult fight with Reform UK.

The mood at the conference is buoyant. That is partly a contrast with a year ago, when there was speculation about Badenoch's future and about whether Robert Jenrick, then shadow justice secretary, wanted the leadership. Her leaders' speech at last year's conference was seen as a turning point, and the party began to believe in her more openly. Her position now looks secure, with no serious talk about her job. Yet Conservative opinion poll ratings remain terrible by historic standards.

In some polls, Reform UK or Labour are ahead, though all the main parties are within a similar range. Senior Conservatives privately discuss whether they can close the gap with Reform and eventually overtake them. If they can, they want to argue that they are the most viable alternative to Labour. One senior figure said the party needs small progress in the hope of bigger progress. The hope is that a tipping point will make the argument for uniting the right easier. Right now, uniting the right looks difficult. Both the Conservatives and Reform are polling in the low 20s.

The Conservative strategy at conference is twofold. First, the party wants to set out a broad philosophy. Kemi Badenoch published The Right Way yesterday, a 100-page, 30,000-word document. Her argument is that if a party does not nail down its first principles in opposition, it will be blown around by government decisions. Conservatives also want to draw a contrast with what they see as a lack of thinking from Reform.

Second, the party is pushing retail policy ideas. Shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith used his speech just after 3.30pm to announce deregulation plans. He wants to get rid of the Environment Agency and Natural England, bringing their expertise in-house within the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The aim, he argues, is not to shred green laws but to make the bodies more accountable. The wider critique is of Blairite changes that created arm's length quangos which Conservatives say are not accountable enough to voters, Parliament or ministers.

Analysts on the ground said the Conservatives still need a clearer economic offer, not just a stronger brand. The party is returning to familiar themes: tax cuts, inheritance tax cuts and deregulation. The problem, one analyst argued, is not that voters do not know what the Conservatives stand for, but that many do not agree with that agenda. The party's positive developments are that it is more unified than two years ago and that there is no whispering about a seventh leader in a decade. But its polling is still behind where it was when Badenoch became leader. Reform's poll share has fallen from the early 30s to the early to mid 20s, yet that has not translated into Conservative gains. Some Reform voters who are put off by financial allegations and scandals may stay at home rather than switch to the Tories.

In an interview, shadow business minister Gareth Davies said the party must get building on housing and infrastructure. He said there are things holding Britain back, starting with the environment. The conference will build towards Kemi Badenoch's closing speech in 48 hours.