Polling finds Reform UK is now seen as the main right opposition

A polling analysis suggests Reform UK has replaced the Conservatives as the main opposition party on the right. The finding is not simply about economic trust. It is about which party voters on the right see as the real challenger and the one most likely to win locally.

The analysis tracked a red line for the government, which was expected to fall, and a blue line for the Conservatives, which was expected to rise. Instead, the positive movement came from a teal line for Reform UK. According to the analysis, that points to something more profound: voters are treating Reform as the main party of opposition. Reform is not necessarily more trusted on the economy, but it is benefiting from voters who think the economy is going badly.

The analysis considered whether this is still the Liz Truss effect or a wider problem with the Tory brand. Its conclusion was that it is probably not just the Liz Truss effect. A negative effect for the Conservatives remained in 2025, but the bigger change is that voters have seen Reform do well in opinion polls and local elections and now look to it as the primary opposition party on the right.

The data on local viability has shifted sharply. After the 2024 general election, British Election Study data showed that nearly two-thirds of people among parties on the right saw the Conservatives as the party that could win in their constituency. After the May 2026 local elections, that flipped. Nearly 45 per cent, or 44 per cent, now think Reform UK is more likely to win in their constituency, while only one in four think the Conservatives could. The analysis called this a really important psychological shift.

There are caveats. Nigel Farage and Reform have recently suffered in the opinion polls. The analysis noted worries about funding and chaos in the party. The Conservatives may also be creeping up in the polls and are likely to be pleased by Reform's difficulties. But the Conservatives have not shown voters that they can win things again. They have not won anything noticeable for a long period, while Reform have kept winning local elections and have been the main party on the right in major by-elections.

The analysis said Reform's position depends on momentum. If Reform keeps winning, it will stay the main party on the right. If it is dented by the Conservatives or Labour, support could flow away fairly quickly. Labour's strategy, as described, is to get on with governing and demonstrate what it can do, then worry about who the main opposition is. The big anxiety for some is whether the parties on the right could ever unite, though that is seen as unlikely, particularly given Farage and the status he awards himself.

One analyst described the polling as the most interesting in a long while because of Reform's track record of winning. For now, the evidence points to a clear shift: voters on the right increasingly see Reform UK, not the Conservatives, as the main opposition.