Poor UK harvest yields raise warnings of higher food prices

The UK harvest of key cereal crops has come in well below average after a summer of extreme heat and drought, according to official figures. The poor yields have raised warnings that food prices could rise, with farmers, bakers and retailers facing higher costs and tighter supplies.

Figures from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board show spring barley, used in brewing, was down 17%. Oats, used for livestock feed and human cereals, were 14% lower than the five-year average. Winter wheat, used in flour, was down 11%. Oilseed rape, used in cooking oils, rose 19%.

At a potato farm in Yorkshire, yields were 20% to 30% down and quality was also hit. In the Thames Valley, cereal crops were harvested weeks earlier than usual. A Buckinghamshire farmer said his wheat yield was only two-thirds of the five-year average, leaving barns and silos empty. In West Yorkshire, a farmer expected nine tonnes per hectare but got seven and a half for two years running, leaving income about £300 a hectare lower while costs for fertiliser, chemicals and fuel rose. At a Wakefield grain store, a farmer said empty spaces showed wheat yields were down about 20% in his area.

The problems went beyond quantity. Quality suffered as crops were smaller, misshapen or scarred by pests. A food firm reported 474,000 kilograms more misshapen produce than usual, including swirly sweet potatoes, curly cucumbers, tiny butternut squash, smaller sweet potatoes and apples with more visible dots. The firm stressed the produce was still nutritious and tasty.

The impact is spreading through the food chain. Shops will either have to import more or raise prices. The UK used to produce almost all the wheat it needed, and one farmer warned that greater reliance on imports would leave the country more exposed to price shocks. Food security, he said, is national security. A bakery said the price of flour was set to rise 10% in October, on top of higher costs for butter, milk, cream, sugar and electricity. It expected to pass on some increases before Christmas. Food price inflation was forecast to rise towards 4% by Christmas and above 6% by next summer.

Farmers and analysts linked the poor harvest to climate change, the war in Ukraine and wider geopolitical pressures. The first heat wave in late May caused damage, especially in southern England. The summer drought also affected Europe, while the war in Ukraine and its escalation over the summer pushed agricultural commodity prices higher. The dry conditions made this the second and for some farms the third difficult year in a row.

The government said it was helping keep prices down by suspending some food import tariffs and supporting farmers. Supermarkets said they had plans to prevent price surges. Separately, diesel prices were expected to reach a new record high, and hauliers said they had little choice but to pass on higher fuel costs. That would add further pressure to food transport costs.

Not every crop suffered. Oilseed rape yields rose 19%, and one farmer described it as a crop that should cope with the unsettled climate, making it a risk worth taking. One farmer also said diversification, including a golf club, was helping keep the farm in business. But for many growers, the season has ended with lower yields, higher costs and uncertainty about what consumers will pay at the checkout.