El Nino strongest on record, Met Office warns impacts already felt
Scientists say the developing El Nino is the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures more than three degrees above average and major weather impacts already being felt.
The Full Story
A plain summary built from the channels that reported this story.
Scientists monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures say the developing El Nino is now the strongest on record. The Met Office says much of the expected impact is already being felt. Wildfires have been seen in Indonesia, and low water levels in the Panama Canal are restricting international shipping.
Sea surface temperatures in the region are more than three degrees above average. The event is not expected to peak until later this year. Scientists are warning of a potentially major shift in weather patterns.
El Nino is one of the most important weather systems on the planet. In a normal year, winds blow from South America towards Australia and Indonesia, pushing surface water warmed by the sun towards the west. In El Nino years, bursts of wind blow the other way and move some of that warm water east. As the central Pacific warms, the winds weaken and allow more heat to build up. This creates a feedback loop: the warmer the water, the weaker the winds, and the more heat builds off the coast of South America.
Ocean monitoring shows a huge wave of warm water building beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific. Scientists say it is warm even by El Nino standards. A strong El Nino would typically see surface temperatures rise by about two degrees Celsius. This year's event could deliver more than three degrees of additional warmth. Some of that heat and moisture is already radiating into the atmosphere, and scientists say there is more to come.
The expected impacts include droughts and wildfires in parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia. Torrential rain and potentially flooding are expected in coastal Ecuador and Peru, and in parts of the southern United States. In the UK, El Nino is associated with a wetter, stormier autumn and a colder end to winter.
The Met Office says this El Nino is set to be the strongest in records dating back 150 years. With the event still building, scientists say the full effects are yet to be seen.
On screen
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Key Claims
Claims reported during this story's coverage, mapped by channel. Ordered by how many channels carried each claim.
| Claim | BBC One |
|---|---|
| Scientists monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures reported the developing El Nino is the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures more than three degrees above average and no peak expected until later in the year. | |
| The El Nino is expected to cause droughts and wildfires in parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia, and torrential rain and possible flooding in coastal Ecuador, Peru and parts of the southern United States. |
Channel Perspectives
What each channel focused on, with key quotes.
BBC ONE West gave the story a detailed science explainer, led by its climate editor. It focused on the record strength of the developing El Nino, the Pacific warming mechanism and examples of impacts already being felt, including wildfires in Indonesia and shipping restrictions at the Panama Canal. It also listed the expected regional effects and the UK forecast, while the El Nino item sat in a wider bulletin that also carried unrelated crime and borrowing news.
- “This El Nino is set to be the strongest in records dating back 150 years and the Met Office says its impact are already being felt”
- “sea surface temperatures in the region are now more than three degrees Above the average and with the event not expected to peak until later this year”
- “It is expected to bring droughts and wildfires to parts of South America Southern Africa and Australia Torrential rain and potentially flooding to coastal Ecuador Peru and parts of the southern United States”
Broadcast Timeline
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