Security Brief Live: jet drones and hybrid threats reshape Ukraine war

A special edition of The Security Brief Live set out how the war in Ukraine has moved from tanks and trenches to drones and artificial intelligence, and how that change is shaping the threat to NATO countries. The programme said the conflict has transformed modern warfare and asked what has been learned, where the war goes next and whether Europe is prepared. It also broadened the frame beyond the battlefield to sabotage, cyber attacks and disinformation, noting that some European leaders say the continent is already at war.

One case study traced a Russian drone base at Simbalova, which did not exist a year ago. Satellite imagery showed six launch rails pointing west towards Ukraine. The target was the Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv, about 210 kilometres away. New jet-powered drones fly at about 500 kilometres an hour, or 8.5 kilometres a minute, giving a flight time of roughly 25 minutes. The older propeller-driven Shaheds would have taken well over an hour. The new Geran-3s and Geran-4s are three times as fast, leaving Ukraine with a third of the time to acquire, track and shoot them down.

The programme focused on three Russian systems in particular:

• Geran-4: looks like Iran's Shahed but is different under the skin. It has a Chinese jet engine, flies at 500 km/h and carries a thermobaric warhead that creates a fireball and pressure wave.
• Geran-5: shaped more like a cruise missile, also with a Chinese jet engine and a range of about 1,000 km. That puts anywhere in Ukraine within reach and potentially beyond, and Russia is building them in the thousands.
• Banderol: a small cruise missile rather than a drone, launched from Russia's Orion drone. The Orion can loiter for 24 hours, which makes the Banderol a particular threat.

Ukraine is also adapting. The programme showed a new Ukrainian jet-powered interceptor coming off a rail. It is designed for the faster Geran-3 and Geran-4 targets. Footage from a camera in its nose showed an operator flying it manually onto a Geran-5, a 6.5 metre drone. The point was the pace of change: the window for technological and tactical advantage is small, and both sides are trying to keep it.

Brigadier Stu Nasse, who leads the UK Ministry of Defence project supporting the drone coalition for Ukraine, said the lesson was to listen to Kyiv. He said there had been a degree of Western arrogance early in the war, when NATO emptied its lockers and assumed it could teach Ukraine about manoeuvre and capability. By 2024, he said, Ukraine had shown it knew more about uncrewed warfare than its partners, and humility had become the most important response. He argued that an existential threat changes the risk process and tolerance for casualties, and drives faster defence innovation.

Asked why Europe does not hold a similar mass-produced drone stockpile, Brigadier Nasse said a large stockpile might deter for about six weeks. He described a 24-6-6 upgrade cycle: every 24 hours something must change, such as the angle of attack or altitude; every six weeks a system needs a software, antenna or frequency upgrade; every six months the system must be replaced because it is obsolete. A million stored drones could become irrelevant shelfware once an enemy counters them.

Air Chief Marshal Sir Johnny Stringer, NATO's second in command, said the alliance is repositioning forces and bringing in new systems to strengthen its eastern flank. He said the threat now ranges from very cheap drones to ballistic missiles and all points in between, and that NATO is working across its five war-fighting domains to make its capabilities as strong as possible. His boss in Warsaw said NATO has the situation in hand, but that the burden also falls on partners. The discussion returned repeatedly to time pressure, and whether NATO and Ukraine can adapt fast enough.