Swinney to claim stars aligning for independence as SNP conference ends

The SNP has ended its annual conference in Aberdeen with John Swinney preparing to tell delegates that the stars are aligning for Scottish independence. The first minister will use his closing speech to argue that the party's fifth successive Holyrood election win, the Brexit settlement and what he calls a broken pension promise have changed the case for a new referendum.

The conference has been dominated by the SNP's demand for another independence vote during this parliamentary term, which Mr Swinney says should happen before 2031. He has repeated his invitation to Prime Minister Andy Burnham to attend the conference and discuss the timing of a referendum. Mr Burnham has rejected the call, saying there is no consensus, but the SNP argues that Westminster's refusal cannot hold indefinitely. Opinion polling is central to that argument. The SNP points to surveys showing independence is the preferred constitutional option in most polls, though support remains around 50 per cent and one pollster said the issue ranks 12th on the public's list of priorities, and third even among SNP supporters.

Mr Burnham visited Scotland during the conference to set out a devolution offer. He said he wanted to work with the Scottish government to move power away from both Westminster and Holyrood to local communities, including devolving employment support currently handled by the Department for Work and Pensions. The SNP said it had already asked for that. In a Q&A after his speech, Mr Burnham did not explicitly rule out a second independence referendum, but he has previously described constitutional debate as a waste of time. The SNP said he later wrote to Mr Swinney saying the subject was off limits. His visit also highlighted his personal popularity in Scotland, with one poll giving him a net favourability rating of plus nine against minus 90 for Mr Swinney.

The party has launched what it calls its biggest campaign for independence since the 2014 referendum. The Choose Scotland campaign will use doorsteps, social media, billboards and a party political broadcast, and aims to speak to 1.5 million people. SNP figures say it is also about building support for Scotland's right to decide, including among people who do not yet back independence. The deputy leader, Keith Brown, said the SNP had won 58 seats at Holyrood and the largest gap over the second party, even though it lost seats. He argued that pressure was growing because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now have first ministers who want to leave the UK. The SNP has also been formalising links with Plaid Cymru and the Northern Ireland executive.

Domestic policy has featured heavily. Mr Swinney has accused the UK government of undermining the pensions triple lock, saying Scottish pensioners will lose out by £2,000. Critics, including the Institute for Fiscal Studies, say that is misleading because changing the triple lock would slow the rate of increase, not remove pensions. Mr Swinney insists that slower increases still mean people lose out. On oil and gas, he said the UK government must decide whether to approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields. He said approval would be rational if their carbon emissions were lower than importing oil and gas, and compatible with net zero. The SNP previously opposed new licences, and he rejected criticism that the party was sitting on the fence.

Other issues have crowded the conference. Mr Swinney described the embezzlement conviction of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell as criminal, unacceptable and deeply damaging to the party. He said he forgave people as a man of faith, and said he felt sorry for Nicola Sturgeon, who he said had been badly let down. On defence, an SNP minister said an independent Scotland would be a non-nuclear NATO member focused on maritime defence. On comments by Scottish Greens co-leader Ross Greer about Zionism and Israel, Mr Swinney said he did not agree with the analysis and was reluctant to apply labels. He also said he would look again at visiting a Glasgow homeless shelter that had asked him to come.

The conference closes with Mr Swinney still needing a route past Westminster's refusal to grant a referendum. His argument is that political pressure, electoral results and polling will eventually force one. The SNP's campaign is designed to build that pressure. But with the Prime Minister offering devolution rather than a vote, the immediate path to independence remains blocked.