Trump says Iran war hurt Republicans but he would strike again

BBC Two's Politics Live reported that Donald Trump said JD Vance was largely true to blame the Iran war for Republican midterm losses, because it pushed gasoline prices up in the short term. Trump said he would order the strike again, arguing that stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was worth the electoral cost.

BBC Two reported that Vance, the vice president, had said the war was the reason Republicans lost and challenged Republicans to say whether losing the Senate for six years was worth it. Shashank Joshi, the Economist's Washington bureau chief, told the programme that this was a clear rebuke to Trump. He said a new attack on Iran would cause a serious rift between the vice presidency and the presidency, and that Trump was politically weakened.

Joshi told BBC Two that expectations had shifted. Days earlier, diplomats and insiders expected Trump to escalate after the midterms, with military movements in the region and Israeli pressure. By the time of the broadcast, it looked different: Trump may have spoken to Benjamin Netanyahu and suggested he would not join Netanyahu.

BBC Two reported that Vance had been conducting diplomacy with Iran, including writing to the head of Iran's National Security Council and secret back channels. Iran had reportedly replied that it was open to talks. Joshi told BBC Two that Tehran could push for a stronger deal because it saw a weakened president surrounded by advisers divided between hawks such as CIA director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and those urging restraint.

BBC Two reported that, with Democrats set to take control of the Senate in January, they could use the lame-duck session to demand that Trump sack Pete Hegseth or commit to ending the war, threatening to withhold a supplemental defence budget. The Pentagon would need the money if it went to war again because it was short of munitions and air defence interceptors. Joshi told the programme that the war was so unpopular that some Democrats might use that lever, though veto-proof legislation next year remained unlikely.

BBC Two reported that oil prices had fallen as markets bet on calm, with some traders relying on the 'TACO trade', meaning 'Trump always chickens out'. Joshi told BBC Two that markets had a poor record of predicting conflict and he was dubious, though the adjustment was rational given the political signals. A panellist, Siobhain, said on the programme that there were two schools of thought: things would calm down, or Trump would start another strike out of anger. Simon, another panellist, agreed that it was impossible to predict.