Trump suggests possible US-Iran talks as Hormuz standoff continues

President Trump has raised the prospect of talks between American and Iranian negotiators later this week, according to comments he made to the US news website Axios. The signal came as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continued, with military claims, denials and warnings still shaping the confrontation.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is believed to be meeting Qatari mediators in New York. He said Iran remained open to diplomacy but was also ready to confront the United States, even if it led to what he called an apocalyptic war. His remarks suggest Tehran wants to keep a diplomatic channel alive while preparing for a harder confrontation.

The diplomatic opening is narrow. President Trump has rejected Iran's latest proposals for ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The Strait remains the central pressure point in the crisis, both as a military standoff and as a global energy choke point.

The military picture is contested. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they had seized another American underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military flatly denied that claim. A statement read by an Iranian news presenter and attributed to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said enemy forces no longer roamed freely in the seas south of Iran. According to the statement, they do not come beyond the Arabian Sea because of blows from Iranian fighters and the guardians of the strait, and before too long the Arabian Sea will be rid of them too.

Kirsten Fontenrose, a former senior director for the Gulf at the US National Security Council in the first Trump administration and now at the Atlantic Council, said the administration was open to talking at any time. But she played down the chances of a breakthrough. In her view, both sides are watching the US midterms. Washington believes Tehran is waiting for the midterms and trying to apply more leverage to Trump before then, in the hope he will make a deal that suits Iran. Trump, she said, is saying he will not do anything until after the midterms because he does not want to shake up the US domestic cycle with a big decision on kinetic activity or a deal that some in the US would not support.

Fontenrose also said Trump's recent summit with President Xi of China would affect his Iran decisions. She argued that both sides benefit from being seen at the table, and that talking helps keep markets calm, but neither side is making concessions. She said she did not expect any near-term breakthroughs.

A further problem, she said, is that the Americans do not always know who they are negotiating with. The Iranians do not necessarily speak with one voice, and hardliners in the regime often take a different line from the political wing. Inside Tehran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is calling most of the shots, whether or not the supreme leader is alive, she said. The information he receives, if any, comes through IRGC channels. Factions debate the proper next step with regard to the US.

Fontenrose said the IRGC's strength is asymmetric warfare, while the foreign ministry's strength is negotiation. She described a scenario that she does not think is unlikely: the Iranian regime pursuing both at the same time. Asymmetric warfare could mean responses anywhere in the world, not just on traditional battlefields. That would create a new challenge for the administration, which would need to be prepared on all fronts.

The overall picture remains tense. Trump has hinted at talks, Iran has kept the door to diplomacy ajar while warning of war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a live military and energy flashpoint. The diplomatic door is open, but only just, and no near-term deal is in sight.