Trump weighs Iran and Houthi escalation as USS George Washington patrols Arabian Sea

Carrier at the centre of US options

The USS George Washington is deployed in the Arabian Sea, within striking distance of both Iran and Yemen. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier replaced the USS Abraham Lincoln, which returned home last week after a record deployment. It is the spine of the US operation against Iran and a tool to control the Strait of Hormuz. Reporters granted rare access to the carrier described night operations, with fighter jets taking off from the deck to patrol the Strait and escort commercial shipping. The planes provide overwatch, footage and possible defence for tankers under threat from Iranian assets. The carrier is part of a larger fleet, including the destroyer USS Shoup, which has a crew of about 300 and escorts the strike group. The carrier has about 5,000 sailors and two nuclear reactors.

Attacks and shipping

Despite the US military presence, Iran is ramping up attacks on cargo ships, and the number of commercial vessels crossing the Strait is down. A commercial vessel north of the carrier tried to leave Iranian waters, breaking a US blockade, according to US Central Command. A missile from a US fighter jet from the carrier disabled its engine but caused no casualties. Iran has crippled three oil tankers in the past two days with direct strikes or mines, one analyst said. Iran's oil minister threatened an immediate and appropriate response to any US threat to Iranian energy facilities. The Strait is effectively shut, and Iran retains a ballistic missile programme.

Houthi attacks and Saudi pressure

The Iran-backed Houthis are intensifying strikes on Saudi Arabia and Yemen. A report said the presidential compound in Aden was hit, killing five people and wounding 16, according to the Yemeni Health Minister. Houthis are also attacking non-Houthi areas of Yemen. The Houthis have worried the Saudis enough that Riyadh has asked Trump to get involved. A ballistic missile attack on Riyadh airport is crippling the Saudi economy. Two international conferences have been cancelled, including a health conference expected to draw 20,000 people. The Bab al-Mandeb strait is also under threat. Saudi Arabia spends about $80bn a year on military hardware, but the Houthi attacks raise questions about its defensive capability. The Saudis feel unprotected by America.

Trump's decision and political timing

Trump is weighing whether to turn the carrier towards Yemen to help the Saudis against the Houthis, or to double down in Iran and finish the job, as he said at a rally. The midterm elections are just over two weeks away. Some expect no escalation before the vote, but after the midterms the crew and analysts anticipate that things could get busy. The president retains broad executive power in foreign affairs and can redirect the carrier. US gas prices are through the roof, and diesel prices are a political concern. The mission is expensive and stretching the military. The carrier's home base is Japan and it should be in the Asia Pacific region, not the Middle East.

Doubts about the mission

Analysts questioned the sustainability and strategic purpose of the deployment. They said the battle group cannot police the Strait of Hormuz forever, pointing to a strategic failure. The multi-billion pound warship cannot, has not been able to, and will not be able to crush the Houthis or finish the job in Iran, one said. The Houthis and Iran are cellular and asymmetric opponents, so taking out a head does not destroy the whole. The strategic objective remains unclear: regime change, reopening the Strait, or something else. Sailors on board did not appear to think escalation was imminent, but decisions are made well above their level. Trump is unpredictable and acts last minute.