Super El Nino wet winter looms as UK flood defences improve but risks remain

The UK has strengthened its flood defences and insurance support in the decade since Storm Desmond, but the country still faces growing exposure as a Super El Nino raises the odds of a wetter than usual autumn and early winter. The weather pattern contributed to record rainfall and billions of pounds of damage in 2015. A decade on, officials say there have been inroads into preparedness, while risks have also increased.

Homeowners Tracy and Tim, whose property near Newport in South Wales was flooded two years ago, show what resilience means in practice. They claimed for repairs but also received an extra £10,000 to reduce future flood damage. The money came from their insurer Aviva through Flood Re, a government-backed scheme. They installed barriers, which they said were easy to fit, and last winter when the river rose again the result was less devastating. "In the first flood we lost everything downstairs. In the second flood I lost the lawnmower," one of them said. Flood Re also helps flood-prone homes get affordable insurance, and 742,000 property owners have benefited so far.

Government spending on flood defences is at record levels, with £2.6 billion invested since 2024 and almost £8 billion pledged over the next decade. One example is a £120 million scheme with 10 miles of new defences to protect an industrial zone that is creating 12,000 new jobs. There is also growing recognition that natural interventions can be cost-effective. Along tributaries of the River Frome in Gloucestershire, felling trees to create dams has reduced peak floodwaters by a metre.

However, flood resilience planning is often at odds with the UK's need for new homes. At the edge of Yatton near Bristol, on fields that can look like lakes in winter, a large housing estate has been approved. Residents said 190 extra homes pouring water into a ditch was frightening. The application was forcefully opposed by the Environment Agency and North Somerset Council, but a High Court judgment sided with the developers. That decision could set a new legal precedent. Residents warned that if it could happen to them, it could happen to anyone, and said the development would create jobs and wealth but also carry a human cost.

New housing data underline the concern:

• One in nine new houses built between 2022 and 24 is in a medium or high-risk flood zone.
• The government insists many of those homes will have adequate defences.
• A total of 6.9 million properties are now at risk of flooding.
• Surveys indicate one in three of those householders do not realise it.

Some councils are trying to raise awareness. Stroud District Council in Gloucestershire has offered to collect dug-up driveways and paving for free. The area gets a lot of run-off from nearby hills in winter, and residents said the road can sometimes become a river. The idea is borrowed from the Netherlands, where 23 million paving stones have been replaced with soil. Supporters say it helps people in high surface flood risk areas feel they can make an impact, work with neighbours, and build community pride and a sense of power.

At the launch of a new Flood Task Force this week, ministers insisted the UK is better prepared. They urged householders to check their flood risk on the Government website and sign up to alerts. The warning remains that if early winter is extremely rainy, rising water may yet outpace all the effort going into keeping it at bay.