Met Office warns strongest El Nino on record could make 2027 hottest year

The Met Office has issued a stark warning that the El Nino weather phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean is set to be the strongest in living memory, with global temperatures likely to reach record levels in 2027. The natural climate pattern, which occurs every two to seven years, is already showing signs of exceptional intensity, with sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific forecast to rise more than three degrees Celsius above normal. That is far beyond the two degrees that typically defines a strong El Nino, and scientists say the event could be the most powerful since the 19th century.

El Nino begins when the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific weaken or even reverse. This allows warm surface water to slosh back towards the coast of South America, piling up and releasing vast amounts of heat and moisture into the atmosphere. The shift in ocean heat alters weather patterns across the globe, often with devastating consequences. In Australia, Southeast Asia and the Amazon, the risk of drought and wildfires increases sharply, while parts of South America, the southern United States and eastern Africa face a greater threat of flooding and landslides. The Indian monsoon is also likely to be weaker, reducing rainfall for farmers.

The effects are already being felt. Indonesia is battling thousands of wildfires, with smoke visible from space, while Peru has seen flash floods wash away roads. The Panama Canal, a vital shipping route, has been forced to cut the number of daily transit slots because of low water levels in its reservoirs. In India, the monsoon has brought less rain than usual, and the country has begun importing sugar for the first time in a decade. The World Food Programme estimates that an extra 49 million people could struggle to feed themselves as a result of El Nino.

For the UK, the impacts are less direct but still significant. The Met Office says the country is likely to see a wetter and stormier autumn and early winter, followed by a colder end to the season. This comes after a summer of heatwaves and drought, leaving the ground baked hard and increasing the risk of flash flooding. The last strong El Nino, in 2015-16, brought a relentless series of storms, including Storm Desmond, which caused catastrophic flooding in Cumbria and left thousands of homes under water. Insurers paid out £1.3 billion for flood damage. This year's event is forecast to be even stronger.

The economic consequences are also a major concern. El Nino can disrupt supply chains for everyday goods. Coffee from Ethiopia, clothing from Bangladesh, semiconductors from Malaysia and palm oil from Indonesia are all vulnerable to shifts in rainfall and temperature. After the last strong El Nino, chocolate prices rose by 15 per cent because of dry weather in West Africa. Researchers say this year's event could put further pressure on food prices and other essentials.

Climate scientists stress that El Nino is a natural phenomenon, but its impacts are being amplified by human-induced climate change. Global temperatures have already risen by about 1.4 degrees Celsius since the 19th century, and El Nino adds an extra boost. The Met Office says 2027 is now very likely to overtake 2024 as the warmest year on record, temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degree threshold set out in the Paris Agreement. As one forecaster put it, "I have never seen a forecast that looks like this." The coming months will test the resilience of communities and economies around the world.