YouGov poll projects hung parliament with Labour needing smaller parties
A YouGov MRP poll projects a hung parliament, with Labour on 241 seats needing the Lib Dems, Greens and the SNP or Plaid Cymru, while the Tories and Reform still fall short together.
The Full Story
A plain summary built from the channels that reported this story.
A YouGov MRP projection has found that a general election held tomorrow would produce a hung parliament. Labour, led by Andy Burnham, would be the largest party but would fall far short of the 326 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons.
The projected seat totals are: - Labour: 241, down 171 from the 2024 election. Burnham would probably remain Prime Minister. - Conservatives: 130, up nine from 2024, putting them second. - Reform UK: 123, up 118 from 2024, but down from first to third in seats in the year since the last YouGov MRP. - Liberal Democrats: 71, down one. - SNP: 40, up 31. - Plaid Cymru: 15, up 11. - Greens: 9, up five.
Excluding Northern Ireland's 18 seats, no party reaches 326. Labour would need 85 more seats. Adding the Liberal Democrats would leave it 14 short. Adding the Greens would leave it five short. Only by adding the SNP or Plaid Cymru would Labour pass the winning line. A government managing four or more parties could be difficult to run.
On the right, the Conservatives would be 196 seats short on their own. Adding Reform would still leave them 73 seats short of a majority. Other parties are committed to keeping them out of power.
The vote shares for the top three are close, despite the gap in seats. Reform is ahead of the Conservatives in votes but behind them in seats. The projection marks another swing in a volatile period: the 2024 election produced a Labour landslide, a YouGov projection in 2025 suggested Reform would make large gains, and the new projection returns a multicoloured map with a strong SNP showing in Scotland and a strong Plaid Cymru showing in Wales.
Richard Tice, Reform's deputy leader, played down the national projection in an interview. He said polls go up and down and pointed to council by-elections, claiming Reform is ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour at that level. He said the party is funded and ready for a general election whenever it comes, and rejected the suggestion that it would enter a pact with the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. He also said Reform is the only party with a proper plan to cut welfare spending by tens of billions every year, and attacked the government over small boats, defence spending and Heathrow.
A separate discussion of polling pointed to a wider pattern. More in Common, YouGov and Savanta have all found that a progressive bloc of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP would between them get a majority, with Labour the biggest party. Analysts said nearly half of all seats are on a knife edge, meaning they are estimated to be won by fewer than five points. A six-point swing to Reform could give it 352 seats. Panellists also said the Conservatives would be likely to do a deal with Reform if together they could command a majority. One panellist predicted Labour would win the next general election with a majority, citing splits on the right.
The Prime Minister has ruled out an early election, but the polling has intensified debate about tactical voting, coalition options and whether the right can unite.
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Key Claims
Claims reported during this story's coverage, mapped by channel. Ordered by how many channels carried each claim.
| Claim | GB News | ITV | Sky News |
|---|---|---|---|
| An MRP poll projected Reform UK's seat total at 123 to 153, down from a previous high of 293. | · | · | |
| Polling by More in Common, YouGov and Savanta indicated increased tactical voting by left-leaning voters to prevent Reform gains. | · | · | |
| Richard Tice claimed Reform UK won the most council seats in recent by-elections and was ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. | · | · | |
| The polling analysis projected that progressive parties together would win a majority, with Labour as the largest party. | · | · | |
| The polling analysis suggested a six-point swing to Reform could give the party 352 seats. | · | · | |
| The projection indicated that Labour would require support from the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and either the SNP or Plaid Cymru to form a government. | · | · | |
| The YouGov MRP projection put Labour on 241 seats, short of an overall majority. | · | · | |
| The YouGov MRP projection put Reform on 123 seats, up 118 from the last election but still behind the Conservatives. | · | · |
Channel Perspectives
What each channel focused on, with key quotes.
Sky News led with the exclusive YouGov MRP, treating it as a decisive shift towards coalition politics. It walked through seat totals, vote shares and coalition arithmetic in detail, stressing that Labour is back in first place but would need multiple smaller parties, while the right has no route to a majority. It also compared the projection with 2024 and last year's poll to show a volatile electoral map.
- “Coalition politics beckons.”
- “It's only once you add on the SNP or Plaid do you get over the winning line here.”
- “So add on Reform, see what happens there. And you are still 73 seats from a majority.”
GB News gave Reform UK a direct right of reply through an interview with deputy leader Richard Tice. The focus was less on the MRP's detailed seat maths and more on whether Reform's national poll slide matters, with Tice pivoting to council by-elections, party funding and attacks on the government. The segment challenged him on the fall from a previous projected high and on whether Reform could enter a pact.
- “polls go up and polls go down”
- “we won the most council seats and interestingly when you look at the percentages at those council by-elections we're way ahead of both the Conservatives and the Labour Party.”
- “we've got money in the bank to get ready for the general election whenever it is”
ITV1's Peston widened the story beyond the YouGov MRP to tactical voting and the progressive bloc. The panel discussed polling from More in Common, YouGov and Savanta, seat volatility, and whether the Conservatives and Reform would eventually do a deal. The tone was analytical, focusing on possible routes to power and the knife-edge nature of the contest.
- “the progressive bloc, that's Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP implied, would between them get a majority”
- “nearly half of all seats are on knife edge, which is those that are estimated to be won by fewer than five points.”
- “It's just a six-point swing up on the right there on 352 seats.”
Who was on air
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- 18:31 BST
Richard Tice, Reform UK's deputy leader
“We're the only party”
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Broadcast Timeline
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