Trump campaigns in Kansas as Republican Senate seat becomes toss-up

President Donald Trump has campaigned in Kansas to defend a Republican Senate seat that his party has held for decades, with polling suggesting the race has become unexpectedly competitive two weeks before the midterms. At a rally for incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, Trump told supporters to 'pretend I'm on the ballot' and framed the contest as a choice between his agenda and Democratic control. He pointed to unrest in France, saying: 'If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what's happening in France, a once great nation that is being conquered, looted and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists and communists.'

Trump also attacked the Democratic candidate, Reverend Adam Hamilton, a socially conservative pastor who runs a mega church and is a former Republican. Trump called him 'a radical left phony' who was 'pretending to be a moderate', said he 'openly mocks Jesus', and called him 'a pervert' and 'a bad person'. He provided no evidence for the claims. Hamilton's candidacy has drawn interest in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 and where Trump won by 16 points in 2024.

During the speech, Trump promised $5,000 to every adult and $8 billion to pay for diesel, which has risen because of the war with Iran. Democrats accused him of trying to bribe the electorate. The rally came as traditional Republican voters in Kansas voiced anger over the cost of diesel, which has been pushed up by the Iran war and tariffs on imported goods. A recent poll found corruption topped voter concerns. Local farmers and hauliers said diesel above $4 a gallon was hurting their businesses, while meat and other prices have also climbed. One political scientist said inflation had risen by almost four percentage points from the previous month.

Republicans currently hold majorities in both the House and the Senate. Thirty-three states will elect senators in a fortnight, and eight races could go either way, from Maine to Texas. Kansas is one of the states in play. Republicans are worried that the House may fall to the Democrats and that even the Senate is now at risk. Trump's approval rating is in the mid-30s, with about two-thirds of Americans disapproving of his job. Analysts described the Kansas rally as a base speech designed to turn out stalwart supporters in a difficult environment. They said Republicans were shocked that he had to campaign in states such as Kansas and Nebraska, and that some voters may sit out or back the Democrat for the first time in more than 80 years.

Turnout among Trump's base and undecided voters in Kansas and Texas will be key. Pollsters say they have corrected their methods since 2016, when they underestimated support for Trump. The result in Kansas will be watched as a sign of whether Republican discontent over the Iran war and living costs can be contained before the midterms.