US midterms loom as polls point to Republican losses over costs and Iran war

With less than three weeks to go before the US midterm elections, control of Congress is the central question. All House seats, one third of the Senate and several governorships are on the ballot. Republicans currently hold both the House and the Senate. If Democrats win either chamber, they can block Donald Trump's legislative agenda in the final two years of his second term.

Polls point to a difficult environment for the president's party. Trump's approval rating is in the mid to low 30s and his disapproval rating in the 50s to 60s, according to figures discussed in the coverage. The issue driving voter discontent is affordability. Pollster Frank Luntz said the number one, number two and number three issue is affordability, from food and fuel to housing and healthcare. A majority of voters are unhappy with Trump's handling of the economy, inflation and energy costs. An Associated Press survey found a majority blamed the president and the Iran war for their rising cost of living and wanted Democrats to win control of Congress.

In Michigan's 7th district, one of the races that could decide the House, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is facing Democratic rival Will Lawrence. Barrett recently broke ranks with Trump by voting against continuing the war in Iran. Asked about pressure from the president, he said there was a tremendous amount and that it included an angry call from Trump. Lawrence, whose progressive views have drawn attention, says people are ready for change. The war is felt at the petrol pumps, but the race also turns on local issues. Both candidates oppose a proposed 400-acre hyperscale AI data centre, which locals fear would change a farming community.

The Senate is too close to call. A 50-50 Senate would mean Republicans keep control because the vice-president casts the deciding vote. The House looks likely to move to the Democrats, but the size of the win matters. If Democrats win only a handful of seats, left-wing Democratic Socialists could hold the balance; a wider victory would make a more mainstream speaker more likely. Republicans have a cash advantage, and redistricting has given them an edge of about five or six seats. North Carolina, a reliably Republican state, may cost them a Senate seat. Turnout appears to favour Democrats, but the swing is not overwhelmingly pro-Democratic. Many voters are sending a message of frustration with the Republicans.

Trump has campaigned confidently, telling crowds that when he goes to a state, Republicans win. He is not on the ballot, but his agenda and legacy are. If Republicans lose both chambers, government could stall and he could become a lame duck. If Democrats take the House, they are expected to bring impeachment articles again; a Republican Senate would be needed to block conviction. Some analysts expect Trump to turn more to foreign policy if Congress is divided, because the president has more room as commander-in-chief. He has said the war in Iran will end after the elections and that prices will tumble, but there is a stalemate with Tehran and no clear end in sight. Voters have not accepted his description of the conflict as a small price to pay.

The economic fallout matters beyond the US. Higher oil, energy and petrol prices linked to the Iran war have hit Britain and Europe, and a post-election push by Trump to exit the conflict could ease some of that pressure. European elections add another layer. France's presidential election next year could produce a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with Le Pen currently seen as winning, even as the US may shift left.

Luntz said Trump could still help Republicans by explaining how his big beautiful bill cut regulation and litigation and left more money in people's pockets. He added that Trump keeps complicating a simple message. In a separate setback, Trump dropped his latest press secretary, Katie Zacharias, after less than a week in the job, following a poor news conference and questions about her CV.